Superscape becoming Supercharged?

Just some high level analysis, based upon published data...

1. Top 10 Titles / Title family REVENUE Growth (H1+H2 last year, H1 this year)

* AMF Bowling - £84k, £264k, £396k; good growth;
* Chess 2.0 - 33, 286, 297; static;
* Capone Casino - 56, 176, 264; good growth;
* Dodgeball - 5, 235, 264; static (film interest will wain);
* Paintball - ?new, ?new, 231; probable growth;
* AvP - 121, 198, 198; static (film title);
* Jaws - ?new, ?new, 165; probable growth (classic brand);
* Ali Boxing - ?new, ?new, 165; probable growth (major brand);
* Fight Club - 136, 154, 132; now in decline (film);
* Callaway Tour - ?new, ?new, 132 probable growth (major brand);

These 10 titles accounted for 68% of publishing revenues in H1.

2. Top 10 Titles / Title Families versus The Rest

I find it useful to keep the averages in mind...

For H2 2005/6:
* Top 10 titles averaged around £28k per MONTH (range = £11-47k);
* Other 28 title families averaged JUST £3k per MONTH;

For H1 2006/7:
* Top 10 titles averaged around £37k per MONTH (range = £22-66k);
* Other 39 title families averaged JUST £5k per MONTH;
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There are a further 22 titles / title families that are expected to contribute in the H2 trading period. And, beyond that, the Interims suggested a further 16 titles were in the pipeline.
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Given these facts, the significant number of new titles making meaningful contributions to H2 trading, and the wide range of monthly revenues that may apply to an individual title, making revenue forecasts for H2 is clearly not easy!

But for what it's worth, my own view is that there is an 80% chance that H2 publishing revenues will fall into the range £4-5 million. Obviously, a Q3 Update would allow us to seriously narrow that range.
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Superscape remains a small player (we know!), but at least they are now a noticeable player, with maybe a 4% share of the USA download market. So there is plenty of market to go for, and Superscape is well-placed with it's 3D hand.

Also, I know there was real concern earlier in the year that the US download market had flattened. OK, the guys at Verizon were saying that at the BREW Conference in June; however, since then, the GetITNow (GIN) downloads have increased significantly, well beyond Verizon's expectations in June. The quarterly GIN data, a good proportion of which is game downloads looks like this:

* 2005 (million downloads, some are games): 34, 36, 34, 35;

* 2006: 45, 55, 68+ in Q3; so the full year Verizon forecast will obviously be smashed;

Anyway, here's to a profitable 2007.

ps Superscape is still MUCH SMALLER than Gameloft; so growing at the SAME RATE as Gameloft is maybe not the best goal to aim for. If they are to survive as one of the cell phone gaming players, SPS will need to close the absolute revenue gap with it's principal peer group (rather than expand it!).

David