SPEC97
I simply could not agree with you more about buying when others are running scared, but why ARE they scared? All the available evidence suggests a deal/s is/are coming. It is known how problematic it is to deal with government departments, but when it is considered that the single other alternative for the German government is to buy new....I think the likelyhood of this going awol is profoundly unlikely.
So.. we are left with balance of probabilities. The next logical step is to consider the order VALUE when it comes in. Personally, I think, given the long delay the order will 'likely' be bigger, rather than smaller.
There was a heads of agreement to upgrade 7 helicopters (including the trial helicopter), subject to successful trials. I speculate this has been jacked up at least by a factor of 2. In other words 15 helicopters +1 is probable. The profit is 50% or more, and I am hearing the German army have increased the spec, so the profit per 'copter could be significantly more than the original £160k per 'copter.
It is hard to wait, bloody hard, but when it comes, this particular 'stress boil' will burst, and bulls of the stock will, for the first time, be able to relax. Patience is still required, but not for too much longer.
dyor imho