azalea: Well reasoned post. From Sterling's point of view and not including the sad reflection of humanities inability to get on with each other, simply a declining supply with an increased demand will ensure oil/gas do not fall considerably and in all probability will rise.
Forecasters seem stuck in the mould of believing that we are in the same scenario as the last 20 years, i.e. ALL economies are tied to the US. That is no longer quite true, with India and Chinese consumers, who will not be put back in the bottle and want the same material benefits that much of the West has had for years.
I do not mean this politically but economically as it will impact even more on energy prices in the coming years.