I expect azalea above is right.
Some New Year ideas from me are:
I also expect war or warlike activity
involving Iran-Israel by mid 2007. The Business Mag says so ! IF you believe Andrew Neil.
Russia is becoming Stalinist again too.
I think Britain had better try to stay in with China. Its a cold world out there.
OIL I expect $60 plus for most of 2007. I'm revising my estimates upwards for 2007 due to these and other issues affecting supply.
GAS we had it easy in the Gulf this year, so expect a hurricane or two late in 2007. It seems El Ninio affects the hurricane situation by dampening them.
I dont expect a massive recession in the US, and China and the East and Europe should weather it.
A major factor affecting the future price of crude and gas of course is the increasingly tough stand taken by producer nations with oil companies, eg Algeria this week and russia.
This should most probably become the norm not the exception. I'm hoping the Mauretanians don't read too much into what Algeria has done, not for some time anyhow!
- Nigerian relations with oil companies and kidnappings to worsen.
- South America increasingly selling crude to China not the US
Iran and China have a masssive crude deal ( already stated)