Spreadbetting 2005

Hi all, back after a few days away. Keep an eye on BGC which is a potential BLOCKBUSTER. Best traded with limited risk though as its a pharm!

Anyway rumours came out last week that marketing talks have FINALLY started on the marketing of Varisolve. Quick history lesson: Varisolve is a foam treatment for varicose veins. In 2003 FDA stopped US trials and requested a reformulation (see chart!). That's all been done and the clinical hold was lifted (13/07/05). They are now working on re-starting the US trials

However it's worth noting that phase III trials in Europe have ALREADY been completed and the results were AMAZING. So why hasn't the price jumped back to 460p? Well mainly because the US is behind on the testing and the US market will account for around 80% of revenue.

But IMO it's a case of WHEN not IF this product makes it to market!!

The market is truly enormous and success will transform the company and the share price. It's enormous because varisolve will be much cheaper and much less hassle than having the surgery. Take a look at the original business model which quotes annual revenues of $1- 2 billion. However these figures have since been upped as the company now expects to perform 1m procedures/year in US and around 250k-300k in Europe.

From a newsflow perspective there's lots due which should help keep the price buoyed up. And as the product is de-risked, the share price will be re-rated.

IMO at these levels, it's 's a buy.