Yes it's my gut feeling that the licence will not be renewed, but
Soco have suggested that they will need to drill a minimum of 8 further wells for TGT production so of course they need rigs in 2008 whatever they decide to do with the acerage as no TGT production wells will be drilled this year (Thats not to say existing wells won't be tied in for production in Q4 2007)
It is also very probable that they will need deep rigs to finish off the CNV production drilling well into 2008