Fascinating that Sonangol is taking the largest stake in Cabinda North. I haven't followed their strategy closely but it seems to me a pretty significant move away from the modest non-operating stakes they're accustomed to. That must spell high prospectivity. Add in the DRC acreage in between that and Burren/M&P drilling just the other side of the Congo-B border where they've just opened up a new shallow play through the Loufica discovery and it looks like Soco will be holding a royal W.African flush, in prime acreage terms
Whilst I'm certainly inclined to agree with you re W Africa [certainly it is less likely now, IMO, that W Africa would be spun out into a NewCo (given PM's passing)], I don't think one can conclude much from Sonangol's stake raising. When Libya is seen to be retaining 90% of new blocks, one must surely expect new concessions elsewhere to attract tougher terms - irrespective of prospectivity.
However, it certainly will be interesting to see what the Marine XI seismic turns up [especially in the context of the other licences finalised in the meantime]..... ;-)