Sarantel

A0469514

Agree with your summary of the situation -it's a question of evaluating the risk /reward balance and what makes it so difficult is the fact that such a big element of trust is involved .

For me that suggests the share price has to be at bargain basement level before it makes sense to buy because if they do come out with a " sorry the delay is now a cancellation the downside must be much greater than the upside - I say that because by nature those who own shares in a business are optimistic about the prospects and find it difficult to be rational and dispassionate so they hang on until the end is in sight and then panic sell.

I am not suggesting the end is nigh here if I really thought it was I wouldn't be considering a purchase at a lower level but I do worry about the effect of another piece of bad news especially as the management and their advisers do seem "naive" (hopefully we are not being kind here) in terms of news management and how to keep existing investors on side- I suspect institutional investors may know more which is not right but is often the case.

Know nothing about Paulypilot but I wouldn't be tempted to place any value on what Directors may have said I have yet to hear of one who would tell the true position if it was more negative than the market anticipated and I can think of hundreds of past situations where the directors talked up the price or even bought shares to try and support the SP when the ship was actually going down ( Enron springs to mind as the biggest of this type of denial)

Might change my mind at any time but for the moment I think I will wait for a clearer communication from the company before buying any shares even if that should mean missing the bottom.