Sanctuary Group: Sink or Swim?

Expenses down to 2003 levels?? forget it? on what basis do you go back that far in history?!? the business model and environment has changed completely since then!

Just look at the numbers and ignore the rampers. Company have talked about a 7 -8m decrease in their cost base. Any more is highly unlikely imo, do you really think they are saving up good news?

Here is my model. Paste it into excel, reformat it, let me know what you think.

The below are my opinions and estimates etc. and aren't any recommendation to buy/sell shares. I claim no accuracy or responsibility for any use of the below whatsoever. Not sure this legal blurb is necessary.


04 H1 04 H2 04 FY 05 H1 05 H2e 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY

P&L
Continuing sales 89.0 118.9 207.9 78.0 70.2 148.2
% gwth -12.3% -41.0% -28.7%
Acquired - 13.0 13.0 7.0 7.7 14.7
% gwth -41.0% 12.8%
Total sales 89.0 132.0 221.0 85.0 77.8 162.8 195.4 201.2
% gwth -41.0% -26.3% 20.0% 3.0%

COGS (52.4) (87.8) (140.2) (49.0) (54.5) (103.5) (124.1) (127.8)
gross profit 36.6 44.2 80.8 36.0 23.3 59.3 71.3 73.5
margin 41.1% 33.5% 36.6% 42.4% 30.0% 36.4% 36.5% 36.5%
ADMIN (26.0) (29.9) (55.9) (29.5) (31.0) (60.5) (51.4) (51.4)


EBITDA 10.6 14.3 24.9 6.6 (7.7) (1.1) 19.9 22.0
margin 11.9% 10.8% 11.3% 7.8% -9.8% -0.6% 10.2% 10.9%
D (1.4) (1.8) (3.2) (1.4) (1.4) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8)
A (3.0) (3.5) (6.5) (3.5) (3.5) (7.0) (7.0) (7.0)
EBIT 6.2 9.0 15.2 1.7 (12.6) (10.9) 10.1 12.2
I (2.4) (3.3) (5.7) (3.9) (5.0) (8.9) (12.0) (12.0)
I-rate 10.9% 8.3% 7.9% 8.3% 8.2% 7.8%
Extraords (NC) (11.4) (11.4) (130.0) (130.0) - -
Extraords (Cash) (1.5) -
PBT 3.80 (5.7) (1.9) (2.2) (147.6) (149.8) (3.4) 0.2
T (1.7) (3.4) (5.0) (0.6) 43.2 42.6 (1.1) (2.2)
T-rate -24.3% 152.3% -108.7% -46.2% -30.0% -29.9% -30.0% -30.0%
PAT 2.2 (9.1) (6.9) (2.8) (104.3) (107.1) (4.5) (1.9)
Dividends
Net income
payout ratio

CF
EBITDA 10.6 14.3 24.9 6.6 (7.7) (1.1) 19.9 22.0
I (2.4) (3.3) (5.7) (3.9) (5.0) (8.9) (12.0) (12.0)
T (1.7) (3.4) (5.0) (0.6) (0.6)
Provs 2.1 - 2.1 - -
CF 6.6 7.7 14.2 4.2 (12.7) (8.5) 7.9 10.0

Change in WC (10.0) (9.4) (19.4) (28.4) (10.0) (38.4) (10.0) (10.0)
CAPX (7.8) (5.2) (13.0) (4.4) (5.2) (9.6) (5.0) (10.0)
Sale of fixed assets 0.5 0.5 -
FCF (11.3) (6.5) (17.7) (28.6) (27.9) (56.5) (7.1) (10.0)
Divis - -
option exercise
Issue of ord shares 0.6 - 0.6 0.1 0.1
extraords (cash) (1.5)
Purchase of investments/subsids (9.0) (0.3) (9.3) (4.6) (4.6)
PLUG (5.3) (5.3)
FX 1.3 5.9 7.2 (1.0) (1.0)
Cash gen (18.4) (0.8) (19.2) (39.4) (27.9) (67.3) (8.6) (10.0)
interim check (19.2) (67.3)

BAL
Cash 10.5 20.0 20.0 2.3
ST debt (7.9) (19.1) (40.7)
LT debt (70.5) (73.5) (73.5) (73.5)
Finance Leases (1.3) (1.5)
NC (67.9) (53.5) (73.9) (113.4) (141.2) (141.2) (149.8) (159.8)
Average NC (60.7) (93.6) (127.3) (107.5) (145.5) (154.8)
change in average NC
Discrepancy (0.0)