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weskirby - Sun, 29 Dec 02 :

My other burden at the moment is that there are hardly any serious investments in the tmt world out there for someone like me wanting a potential multi-bagger type return - imho you have 5 categories:
1.star performers -no profit warings solid growth high p/e eg srf/torex/mps - I avoid these as most of the good news is priced in from the high p/e albiet that means they are a far lower risk investment and still potentially great performers
2.possible star perfomers that are still expensive - all imho (always subjective I accept) eg arm/pon
3.possible star perfomers that are very cheap (i.e. mcap to cash or to sales)at stage 5 above i.e. regular contract announcements but no reported sales growth yet period on period - eg nsb/blz/blm/csv/rtd/kwl/ind/dsn/esy
4. possible star perfomers that are very cheap at stage 6 above i.e. they are in actual growth mode - eg fib/ftc/kcom/csv? (please let me know if anyone is aware of any more to add to this category)
5. possible star performers that have not reached stage 5 at all i.e twt/moni/egs/pic/izo and all the other old favourites which I guess most of this board have left behind forever

To become better at making money on these stocks if you are taking any from category 5 you have to be incredibly lucky and I leave all these for now. So assume you had to pick a portfolio from my sample list of 9 tmt hopefuls in category 4 (and this is in no way meant to be complete - just to illustrate a point)- who knows which of those is more certain to be a better bet than the rest and that is where luck/skill comes in and clearly directors purchases can make a big influence. My honest view is that you have to look at the pedigree and longevity of the management and their skill set and your trust of them to have the balls to turn it around and for me I rate nsb/blz/esy more highly as at least the management have been around for a long time and should know what is going on. I would steer clear of firms like dsn/kwl/blm where there is continual management change/upheaval.

So to summarise I would in all cases happily buy from my category 6 items and those from category 5 where I rate the management highly enough which means I am left with a very small pool to choose from............

Does anyone else follow a similar systematic approach like this??

Of course none of this is meant to be investment advice for anyone else!!!!!!


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