A very good post Roma77. I tend to run on intuition, as well as research, and my intuition matches your post almost completely. I suspect a lot of small holdings were held by peeps who were just pleased to make a gain and used it to fund their Christmas expenses. Now that excuse is out of the way I feel the only way to go is up as the supply of floating shares dries up and the MMs are forced to raise the price to try and temp more peeps to sell, so they can meet the holding requirements of the Index Tracking Funds. The exception is that I find it hard to accept that someone will ever get into a position to bid, let alone take over FTO without the agreement of the Chiu brothers who have such a large holding(~43%). If they were forced to, the Brothers could amalgamate their shares, held by two separate holding companies, into a single holding and exceed the 29% holding of company shares which would empower them to make a bid for the rest of the company. So on this basis alone, IMHO there will never be a hostile takeover of FTO and the Brothers will leave the share structure as it is. I think the thing that will really make FTO fly is the payment of a regular dividend. That was hinted as being an eventual possibility at the last AGM. But as always DYOR.
Frontier Oil stock quotes
Frontier Oil stock charts
Follow this thread
