Reneuron - second time lucky?

I take onboard the naive label I seem to have gained, however, no one has answered my question: What are the chances of the HFA not granting approval?

Let us consider the chances being next to zero. In such circumstances, unexpected good news would send the price soaring. Whereas, if the chances of approval were all but guarranteed and then surprisingly not approved, the SP would plummet. Similarly, if the chances of approval are 50%, the
SP would hover somewhere between the value of the stock with or without approval.

So, this brings me back to my original question. How likely, in percentage terms, is approval? If the likelyhood is, as I muted earlier, say 90%, then this would be, to a fair degree, already reflected in today's SP. If there is little surprise in approval being granted, why should there be a huge SP increase?

Jim.