RENESOLA - Moderated Discussion & Debate

mbadvfn05 makes the case for solar panels rather than hydroelectric schemes in the right circumstances:


mbadfvn05 - 20 Dec'06 - 06:21 - 17842 of 17939


Carrion crow says:

"You have to laugh, solar panels in (globle warming) LOL!

Water generates FAR more power.

With the ice cap melting, water is by far the next generation of power.

Then again my mind is 5yrs ahead of the market ;)

Target two pound or $3.60 at best."

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Carrion,

You have just proven that you have not done your research and have absolutely no understanding whatever of the energy market, the place of PV solar energy in that market and the unique advantages of SOLA.


1) Fresh water is a finite resource and most possibilities for hydroelectric generated electricity have already been exploited.

2) Solar energy is an almost infinite resource. What is more, it is clean and environmentally friendly. In the not too distant future most global electricy will almost certainly be generated by PV solar.

3) The main impediment to the widespread adoption of solar energy has been cost per watt. But this is changing fast.

4) Oil and gas prices are rising, and will continue to rise as Peak Oil hits the supply side (a decade or two at the most - and many think much sooner)

5) PV solar energy costs are falling and will continue to fall. The PV solar production has been rising so fast for the past 10 years (an average of around 40% a year, compound) that it has caused an acute shortage of the raw material: polysilicon. Polysicon prices have risen from around $20kg up to $100kg plus. Although manufacturers are rushing to build new polysilicon production plants - these take 2 or more years to build. The expectation is that there will continue to a shortage of polysilicon until around 2008. However research by Daiwa, Merril Lynch, Evolution and others indicates that the pent up demand from the rapidly expanding PV industry is such that this shortage will continue to to 2010 or beyond.

6) It is this shortage of polysilcon, and the wafers made from them that are used to make the PV cells, which has created the huge demand for SOLA's wafers. It is a sellers market and SOLA has a rapidly growing list of the top PV solar cell making customers not only willing to enter into forward contracts to buy SOLA's wafers, but also to either finance SOLA to prepurchase their scrap raw material and/or provide under tolling arrangements their own scrap to SOLA for them to process and sell back to them.

7) The Holy Grail for PV solar energy is grid power parity cost (i.e. that PV solar generated electricity cost around the same as other forms of electricity generation). When this is achieved it opens a huge market to PV solar - approx $Us 1 trillion dollars a year!

8) The Holy Grail is now in sight. Sunpower, who make the most energy efficient solar cells, have a well defined road map to reach grid power cost parity by 2012. Another route is thin film technology, but this still has major hurdles to cross, mainly low energy efficiency and unknown longevity.

9) In the mean time governments all over the world are following Germany and Japan's example and are providing subsidies to promote installation of PV solar units. The consensus forecast are that PV solar production will increase at around 40% a year.

10) However as grid cost parity approaches PV solar production will accelerate well above 40% a year.

11) SOLA enjoys a unique competitive advantage in that by using scrap silicon its costs a far lower than its peers. As and when raw silicon prices fall, so will scrap costs, so SOLA will maintain that advantage. Moreover it is extremely difficult for competitors to enter SOLA's niche, because SOLA have first mover advantage and are rapidly tying up in forward contract arrangements most large PV solar cell makers taking most of the the scrap available

12) SOLA is already hugely profitable in terms of net profit as a percent of revenue. lemminginvestor's note shows that SOLA have confirmed that, by bringing wafer slicing in house, its profitability will rise dramatically - far more than Merryl Lynch and other analysts have forecast - leading to massive earnings upgrades for SOLA