Renesola - Chinese Solar Panel/Silicon Recycling

OC

re: OLIVERCROMWELL - 21 Dec'06 - 17:51 - 18004

Great post - have you got a link please?

Until a couple of months ago market consensus was that the polysilicon shortage would ease in 2008 as new production came on stream.

However, recently more and more analysts have come to the conclusion that the shortgage will persist longer into 2009 0r 2010 or longer, which will be very good for SOLA - for example Daiwa, Merril Lynch, Evolution.

Your post shows that yet another analyst has come to same conclusion:

"The polysilicon shortage that has plagued the solar-cell industry for two years is worse than once thought, may persist through the end of the decade, and could affect the silicon wafer industry starting next year, analysts warn.

"The tight polysilicon market could last two years longer than previously expected," possibly continuing to 2010 or 2011, said Bruce Diesen, an analyst with Terra Securities ASA. The material is the key ingredient of both solar cells and silicon wafers and could affect costs in both markets in 2007.

Polysilicon manufacturers produce different grades of the material for the wafer and solar industries. Whereas supplies of wafer-grade polysilicon have remained sufficient thus far, solar-grade polysilicon has been in short supply for roughly two years as the solar industry has seen skyrocketing demand.

The wisdom had been that the shortage of supplies would last until 2009, when additional capacity brought online by such polysilicon vendors as Hemlock, MEMC, Mitsubishi Materials, REC and Wacker would bring sufficient material volumes into the supply chain. But solar's runaway growth has forced a reassessment of that timetable. "