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Renesola - Chinese Solar Panel/Silicon Recycling
mbadfvn05 - Fri, 22 Dec 06 :
Russ,
Thanks for your reply.
Got it: 1 wafer = 2.4W is SOLA's standard figure for 5" X 5" Mono wafers.
Given the higher energy conversion efficiency of Mono over Multi wafers, the 6" X 6" Multi wafers probably have around the same or perhaps lower W output than the smaller 5” x 5” Mono wafers.
Number and instalation timing of slicers.
I was only pointing out the discrepancy between SOLA's slide and your figures because I know that you and JT are extremely thorough in your research and analysis I thought you may have had another source for the difference. I place much more reliance on JTCod's and your forecasts than I do on analysts.
JT's present forecast is 2007 EPS of 64.1 pence and 2008 EPS 100 pence,
Have you posted your estimate for 2007 earnings? I believe you estimated 2008 EPS at 100 pence, and JT concurred. Did you post any details of your calculations? If so could you please post links?
I think my main point stands and it is worth repeating. Analysts have significantly underestimated SOLA's 2007 and 2008 earnings and the actual results are much more likely to meet or exceed your and JT’s forecasts than the much lower Analayst's forecasts.
Consequently we can expect significant upgrades by Analysts. Upgrades normally have the effect of driving up share price>
Meyer Burger DS 262: 4400 wafers in five hours to above-average quality standards.
Is that for Mono or Multis? Any idea of the cost of these machines?
I presume, given the demand pressure, that SOLA are working shifts giving 24/7 production? If one estimates 4 cycles a day that would mean 17,600 wafers a day (4,400 x 4). At 40c profit per wafer = $7,040 a day or $2,569,000 additional profit per year per machine.
With all 73 machines installed in 2007, this would give a daily run rate in 2008 of $513,920 = additional profit of $187,580,800 a year?
These seem huge numbers, so there must be something wrong in my above calculations? Perhaps there is significant difference of wafer output between Mono and Multi slicers? Also SOLA may not be working shifts giving 24/7 production, 365 days a year? – Even the Chinese don’t work that hard….LOL
Alternatively SOLA may be buying and installing more slicing machines than they need in 2007 in preparation for 2008?
In any event the most accurate method to calculate the additional benefit of in-house slicing is the one used by you and JTCod i.e. to calculate wafer output during any given period and apply the 40c per wafer additional profit to that.
Gross & Net Profit
Your nominal $200k for additional overhead cost for slicing seems good to me.
Weighted Average No, Shares v End Of Period No. Shares
You may be technically correct about weighted average shares being used.
However I prefer to use the number of shares outstanding at the end of each period and also prefer to use “diluted” rather than “basic” share numbers. (This latter not yet applicable to SOLA).
In the case of SOLA, the company went through a complete metamorphis before its admission to AIM
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