PTI Protherics at £4 party organization

Well done PTI posters for not slagging off dladenheim for putting his contrary opinions on Protherics. So welcome to have posters who are mature enough to accept contrary views.

dladenheim
Have a look at WestLB Panmure's post-interims update where they go into Angiotensin and CytoTab prospects impressively deeply.
In short, their discounted cash flow valuation (@14% DCF rate) values the company at £370m or 212p a share. Their immediate 12 month upside is 178% with shares valued at 100p. Both CytoTab and Angiotensin vaccine are assessed at 22.5% probability of reaching market and both have a 25% royalty on sales, with peak penetration of each market assessed at 20%. They value the total hypertension market at $30bn.
Converting $30bn to £ at today's rates gives £20.85bn p.a. market (but obviously more if real total market is $36bn). Now a 20% penetration gives £4.17bn and a 25% royalty gives £1.0425bn per year income! OK somewhat pie in the sky stuff, but you might now appreciate why some of us are so happy with the limited downside and gigantic upside possibilities.

I see your pessimism as to product cost. This though is unjustified as the Angiotensin cost is only assessed at the same rate as the cost of other treatments and it would be quite likely that actual drug administering costs of Angiotensin would be lower than conventional pills for a huge range of possible beneficiaries of this new treatment regimen (e.g many elderly nursing home patients).

Moving on now to the CytoTab market: WestLB reckon a 300,000 patient per year in the world (much underestimated according to my own view) and with course cost and 25% royalty I reach a £375m royalty income p.a. on this drug alone. The only competitor is the newly approved Xigris from Eli Lilly and WestLB opine that as the two products target "different parts of the sepsis cascade" that they might well be used in combination. (CytoTab blocks the TNF side of sepsis and Xigris is an activated proteinC which prevents blood clot in sepsis which can lead to organ failure). If so then a 20% peak market penetration is an extremely low assessement. A PE of 10 would not be unjustified which gives the totally dotty upside on CytoTab alone of a £3bn value company, whereas we are now pootling along at £63m Cap. I make that a 47x bagger from here!

WestLB pencil in signing of partners for both CytoTab and Angiotensin for March 2003. Any earlier(as I hope and expect)announcement on either should give a huge lift to the shares.