Provalis - A transformation to growth

Spec...your analysis is correct on the count of instruments/cartridges sold, however, they were orders that became sales and could therefore be booked accordingly.

I am hopefull of a 50% penetration of Cholestech's installed LDX base ie 8000 plus instruments, plus additional instrument sales in the first year ie Sept 02/Sept 03. However, I have tended to err on the conservative side ie 25% penetration which is now looking too conservative.

Here is my earlier post and analysis of what instruments and cartridges might be priced at -

Spec...This information is proving difficult to extract from the figures (and they are deemed sensitive by Provalis), however, using the previously posted assumptions cartridges £1.60 and instrument £200-£300?

4000 intruments @ £250 = £1m

2,000,000 cartridges = £3.2m

Thus giving me my conservative T/O figures, however if you apply that to last years Medical Diagnostics T/O it seems heavily flawed!

It may well be that both the instruments, AND the cartridges that I have under priced? However it does allow for any error (Abbott deal?) but, if we try to adjust the figures ie instruments at £450? and cartridges at £2.50?

in 2001 instruments sold 726 x £450 = £326,700

Cartridges sold 211,000 x £2.50 = £527,500

Consumables ie controls pipettes ect £46,300

Gets us to the total of (amazingly) £900,000 as reported in the accounts to June 2002

Apply that to my projections of sales -

4000 instruments x £450 = £1.8m

2,000,000 cartridges x £2.50 = £5m

Consumables £250,000

Analysis by business class

Medical Diagnostics T/O £7.75M profit circa £1.5m

Healthcare T/O £11m profit circa £1.7m

Therapeutics loss £0.7m

Common costs £1.6m

Interest receivable £0.3m

Equates to a profit of £1.2m?


Obviously the above would double if we upgrade our sales figures accordingly, which in light of the recent Cholestech statements would seem appropriate ie "Subsequent to our initial agreement with Abbott Laboratories, we have begun to launch the Cholestech GDX (Provalis' Glycosal). We are very pleased to report that the initial demand for the product exceeds our expectations". And
"The sale of WellCheck enables Cholestech to focus its management time and financial resources on maximizing growth opportunities in its core diagnostic products business"

Breakeven looks a near certainty, and maiden profits not too ambitious. I believe Provalis is already recieving attention in anticipation of news/figures.

All in my opinion only, please do your own research, I HOLD.

Regards wan ;-)