Hi Richard - I know you will probably laugh at this, but.........I believe your post was a bit unclear, as the reference to breast cancer screening, which was then used to back up your screening rate for your calculations, could easily be read in the way I had.
Also, your statements regarding Stage one cancer and corresponding size being up to 20mm seems to relate to breast cancers. For stage one of lung cancers, a tumour can be up to 30mm. In fact, I understand that in the UK, stage 1 lung cancers can actually exceed 30mm and that there are therefore two levels of stage one.
Nonetheless, the points regarding "conservatism" and "your opinions" and "your calculations" remain the same, regardless of the misunderstood topic.
Regards
Adie2001
p.s. I do hope your wife is ok. I am sure it will take more than a broken arm to get her down.