Pretty much any case for EPG to be a strong performer would also be a case for an unmerged HEP to be a strong performer.
Arguments to support the merger have to either
a) Appeal to HEP being in a very significantly worse position than EPG to raise the required funds. It is in a worse position, but I don't see the issue's worth a huge discount.
b) Argue that the residual Canning basin royalties are valuable - hard to do when there ain't much production and the odd duster gets drilled.
c) Argue that Lons-le-Saunier is very valuable.
I'm most amenable to the latter - but the licence isn't fully granted yet and even if it was we're an awful lot further from seeing if it's feasible to get gas out than we are in Lorraine. And we do know there's less net coal and what there is is deeper, so the economics are less likely to be favourable.