Petrel Resources - moderated discussion/research part II

I said earlier I would expand on why the fraudulent elections, with 35 parties including shias calling for the rerun of the election is good news for Pet.

Here is my take. Such reaction does show a big part of the Iraqi population and some of the political parties won’t let the US backed Iraqi ruling elite have a free reign. It also shows the US is not having total control of the political situation. It further shows that the Iraqis other than just Sunnis are prepared to stand up to the US. Now think of the equivalent scenario within the IMO where Iraqis nationalists are in the majority and how emboldened they must now feel. And conversely, how weakened those pro US within the IMO now are, including Bahr Al-Olum, the minister of oil.

In such situation the weakened party has to give ground to the other party. In other words, the nationalists within the IMO will be much more strengthened and will continue to give more contracts to the likes of Pet. The Pro US elements will not be able to object now they are tarnished with the fraudulent elections. On the contrary, THEY WILL GO ALL THE WAY ALONG THE NATIONALISTS IF ONLY TO REGAIN SOME GROUND, IE THEIR CREDIBILITY, NOW TARNISHED, AS HAVING IRAQ INTERESTS AND NOT US' ONES IN THEIR HEART.

To understand how desperate the pro US element within Iraq ruling elite are, one need look no further than the unexpected and numerous visits of their foreign political backers this week: in less than one week, Ramsfield, Cheney, Poland’s president and Blair visited Iraq. These visits are no more than panic alert button within the Iraq ruling elite. The message from these visitors is we are here to back you. Whatever backing they get, it nonetheless shows they are in a desperate situation and will therefore remain in a weaker position against the nationalists, Pet’s friends. Remember, the backing has been there from day one of the war. Where one will find extra backing, I am not sure. Which leaves the pro US elements to play to the tune of the Iraqis nationalists. They just have no other choice. Let’s not leave out the insurgency from the equation. This will be strengthened and vindicated as a result of the fraudulent elections. Some analysts are already talking of more Iraqis to take up arms if the elections results aren’t revised or the whole election isn’t to re-take place.

Faced with such obstacles the US cannot but compromise and will in no way be able to award contracts to its US cos. Who will fill in the gaps as Iraq needs to rebuild quickly? Pet and its like, with the pro Pet in the ascendancy, and the Pro US in no position to object at all.

While some people may see in the consequences of the fraudulent elections possible delay in the award of contracts etc.. The delay I believe will be minimal. What is more significant however, is the the fraudulent elections will further strengthen Pet’s friends’ hands and therefore more and good contracts to come Pet’s way. 2006 will be very interesting indeed!

This is an objective assessment of the situation not of my anti-US war stance. For the simple reason that I have money invested in Pet and I am not going to allow my anti-war stance cloud my judgement and consequently lose my money. I therefore get more bullish by such political hiccups and get more confident that Pet will provide my retirement money much sooner than my work one.