Oxford Biomedica.

I'm now resigned to the fact that a new thread has been created and I am willing to go along with you all. I am, however, concerned that material I posted on the "Time to buy" thread during the last month which newcomers may find useful may now go overlooked. As such, I post below a selection of these postings for information purposes.

28/12/2001:
In a recent interview for ShareCast (13/12/2001) Alan Kingsman said of the nerve regeneration programme, that it would be a tall order to restore a damaged system completely, but it might at least allow some sensation to be restored. In this respect, I have been talking to a friend who is qualified to PhD level in a relevant field and he suggested that even if the nerves are not reconnected perfectly, the human brain is such a remarkable computer that it may be able to adapt to this, so increasing the chances of success.


28/12/2001:
Prophet, I agree the Beeson Gregory Report is very informative and reassuring if a little out of date now (although subsequent news flow has been positive and therefore reinforces the positive aspects stated in the report).

I was particularly interested in the following:

1) Breakeven possibly as soon as 2005 but may be one off payments before that date.
2)DCF value of 153p and comparative value of 99p (but would now be slightly higher with subsequent good news).
3) Above valuation does NOT include a value for the technology and patent portfolio, or royalty payments on launch, so would expect to see increase in "value" with further collaborations and revenue sources.
4) Even if Trovax does not prove effective, TrovaxDC is a potential backup.
5) The latest version of MetXia is "100 times" more efficient than the original version.
6) OXB are the "world leaders" in the field of nerve regeneration.


24/12/2001:
Marwalker, in response to one of your questions posted earlier today ("TROVAX, apart from mounting an immune response, I wonder if we will see reduction of growth rates as illustrated in the OXB site with preclinical models?") I advise as follows:

The best indication as to whether success of a drug in a preclinical model will transfer to an actual clinical trial (apart from the quality of the model) is whether the treatment being modelled performs very well, averagely or poorly, in the model. In this respect, statements in two press releases indicate Trovax performed very well, as follows:

1) 2/1/2001: Official press release relating to commencement of clinical trial of Trovax, included the statement: "the results have been VERY STRIKINNG, with Trovax breaking immune tolerence to tumours and PROTECTING AGAINST FURTHER GROWTH."

2) 23/10/2000: Press release posted on Hemscott by Nobby, included the quote from Professor Alan Kingsman: "We could not have wished for better pre-clinical results. This (Trovax) does not just scrape through, it GETS THROUGH WITH ABSOLUTELY STUNNING FLYING COLOURS".

In addition, AK went on to say in the latter statement, Trovax "looks so interesting, we have decided to keep it within the company at least until the results of the clinical trials".


20/12/2001:
In my opinion, the Kingsman's sale of shares in OXB during 2000, DID only represent a "small" proportion of their holding. You can calculate this yourself, using the figures provided by 1070414 (posting 761) above; which indicates a sale by the Kingsmans of about 9% of their combined holding (although I think Sue Kingsman's residual holding may have been much larger than 1070414 stated, and the actual combined sale only amounted to about 5% of their combined holding but either way (i.e. 9% or 5%) its still relatively small). I also understand the sales were made as a result of significant demand for the Company's shares by institutions. In this respect, there are options to purchase further shares from the Kingsmans, for example, as exercised in September 2001 by Prelude Trust. Nothing wrong with that!


19/12/2001:
KennethRich, you raised the question as to why the share price is so low? In response, I suggest the following:

1) The share price dropped abruptly 1.75 years ago from a high of £1.20, when the Kingsmans sold a small proportion of their holding, and the company decided not to takeover former Peptide Therapeutics.

The above sale by the Kingsmans appears to be nothing to worry about, however, because they still hold about 7.2% of the total shares; indicating their confidence in the Company. In addition, Andrew Allars of Prelude Trust, who sits on the board of OXB, has been a regular purchaser (9.4%); and OXB have had no difficulty in attracting wider institutionl support for share issues, including the recent placing to set up the gene discovery division, i.e. more confirmation of city confidence in the Company.

2) The market as a whole for the last 1.75 years has lacked clear direction and has tended to take a very short view of investment horizons. This horizon is shorter that the 4 years which, it is predicted, OXB may have to go before reaching overall profitability.

Those who follow OXB closely, however, suspect the share price will be significantly rerated before profitabliity, because OXB's development pipeline is of such high quality; both scientifically and in terms of potential revenue returns to the Company. Take the nerve regeneration programme, for example; there was a announcement last week representing a genuine and unique scientific breakthrough of world class importance and financial potential, yet it went largely unnoticed by many. The same could also be said of the Trovax vaccine. For how much longer, can such breakthroughs be overlooked?

3) There has been no aggressive takeover activity in the UK biotech sector to date. This could soon change, however, with potential late stage and profitable US, European and UK biotech and pharmaceutical companies picking off the more underrated UK stocks. Significantly, the decision of OXB not to merge with Peptide Therapeutics now leaves it appearing vulnerable to a takeover bid and as far as I am aware, there are no blocking stakes.

4) As a biotech company, OXB carries an element of risk. The Company has, however, taken care to minimise this risk by developing a wide range of pipelines, technology, etc; and has about £30 million cash. The support of Andrew Allars, may also indicate minimal risk.

So there you have it. It will be interesting to hear what the company preparing the report on OXB have to say and in this respect, I think we would all be grateful if you could post the details on this thread.


17/12/2001:
Biotech strength led Wall Street gains today, amid announcements of mergers and good trial results. Perhaps we will start to see merger and takeover activity among UK biotechs, OXB included.



I note the bid price of OXB dropped 1p today. No obvious explanation (especially in view of the above) other than a line of (small investor?) sales during the afternoon but it may be relevant that Alizyme's share price also dropped several pence last week, prior to making two positive announcements today and then subsequently recovering. As we know, several announcements are expected shortly from OXB.


15/12/2001:
Have any of you managed to find the web site of OXB's US office (Biomedica Inc.)? One of the initial goals of Biomedica Inc. is to expand the neurobiology opportunities, and in view of the favourable announcement last week in the UK regarding the neurobiology programme, there may be some additional information on the site. There may also be other information of interest.

Post a link on this thread if you find one.


14/12/2001:
Today, shares in Celltech rose 12.5p to 847.5p and Cambridge Antibody added 14p to 1,624p, following news of the potential merger between US groups Immunex and Amgen; which is apparently fuelling hopes of further consolidation among UK biotechs, reports ShareCast.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, OXB appear to look vulnerable to a takeover at present. As far as I'm aware, there are no blocking stakes in OXB; Prelude have about 9% and the Kingsmans hold about 7% combined. Half of the current share price appears to be supported by cash; valueing the drug pipeline, technology and other assets at about 13p per share which seems very modest.


14/12/2001:
For all those new here this morning, you may find an article yesterday on Sharecast, about the nerve regeneration programme, much more informative and encouraging than the official press release.

I've included a summary in posting 702.




13/12/2001:
Dina, I assume you HAVE followed me over to this thread, so in response to your question, "how high can OXB go?", I advise as follows:

In January 2001, broker Beeson Gregory were saying OXB were underpinned by a net present value of 203p. Subsequent to this statement, there was a share issue which would have diluted the figure; but even afterwards, Beeson were still saying fair value was about 153p. Of course, there has since been a lot of good news, including for the low dose Trovax PI/II trials and that released today concerning the nerve repair programme, so the present fair value may have risen.

Turning to the longer term, Alan Kingsman (Chief Executive) has stated he wishes to build a company with a market capitalisation of several billion pounds. In this respect, based on the current number of shares in issue, I calculate that a prospective market capitalisation of say £2.5 billion would equate to a share price of about £10.50 stirling. Of course, there may be a further issue of shares in future that would dilute this figure slightly, but we could still be looking at a very substantial long-term share price.


13/12/2001:
There is a very encouraging article on Sharecast today, regarding the nerve repair programme:

1) OXB are "cautiously optimistic" that it will be able to seek regulatory approval for clinical trials late next year.

2) The reasearchers have sustained nerve growth for "many days", whereas previously it only took place for a "few hours".

3) Alan Kingsman says "We probably have the best gene delivery system for nerve cells in the world. If anybody can get this to work we can".

4) The treatment might at least allow sensation to be restored.

5) In the US alone around $30 billion is spent on care of traumatic brain and spinal injury patients.

6) OXB is well placed to take the treatment into clinical trials on its own.

Read it for yourselves and be happy!!!




13/12/2001:
Excellent news this morning regarding the nerve repair programme, not just because it confirms "considerable" progress with the programme itself, but because it further confirms the effectiveness of OXB's patented LentiVector gene delivery system.

With respect to the latter, I am sure we will see more and more companys expressing an interest in using OXB's LV system, leading to further collaborations, etc.


9/12/2001:
Nobby, as you know from one of my previous postings (29/11/01, No. 524) Alan Kingsman has stated the risk profile of OXB is different to other gene therapy companies (i.e more widely spread and thus lower) and its progress has been very fast compared to others.

The company has previously said it expects to reach breakeven as a whole within about 4 years but drugs should start to generate revenue from partnership deals long before they reach the market.

Andrew Allars of Prelude Technology Trust has continually been prepared to put money into OXB. As a board member he is, one assumes, privy to more information about the company than you or I, and is therefore well placed to assess whether OXB is a good investment. Needless to say, his ongoing investment track record in OXB speaks for itself!

Finally, a note about risk and preclinical models (to which you referred). I understand that OXB are only progressing drugs into clinical trials that performed exceptionally well in preclinical models, rather than just scraping through. Although nothing is guaranteed, this approach should improve the chances of success at later stages. In addition, don't forget the company's vector system is said to outperform other vector systems in terms of its combination of high gene transfer efficiency, duration and regulation of gene expression, ease of production, and safety; which may improve the chances of success.


6/12/2001:
Landsker you "Cannot get much of a response from the Company"..."not much happening"?: I've always found Chief Executive Alan Kingsman replies to my letters and e-mails very quickly, which is more than I can say for some other Chief Execs whom I've contacted.

I don't think there has been a lack of interviews recently, indeed AK has occasionlly been criticised for giving too many interviews and disclosing too much information, for example, he once expressed concern that he felt OXB were a takeover target for several US biotechs. You can find some comments from him and others on Sharecast.co.uk.


4/12/2001:
Nobby, OXB's viral delivery system is refered to in the company's press release of 26th. June 2001, relating to the patent approval for the lentiviral delivery system. OXB use a modified equine virus which is safe because it contains no viral genes at all, and comprises the minimum number of viral particles. Infact, it is said to outperform other vector systems in terms of its combination of high gene transfer efficiency, duration and regulation of gene expression, ease of production and safety.

Incidentlly, ex-Chairman Alan Goodman left OXB to concentrate on expanding his activities with Avlar BioVentures Ltd, the biotech investment fund for new biotech ventures. Nothing sinister in that!


29/11/2001:
Nobby, I completely disagree with you. The science is cutting edge and the mangement high quality.

Perhaps you are in part thinking back to earlier this year when the reputations and share prices of some gene therapy companies unfairly took a bashing after analysts such as Credit Suisse First Boston published criticisms (posted on Reuters Frankfurt- February 2001)of products being slow to materialise. OXB, amongst others, were mentioned by name. I queried this with OXB's Chief Executive, Alan Kingsman, who took the trouble to E-mail a response to me as follows:

"I have already e-mailed Genghis Lloyd Harris at CSFB, pointing out the risk profile of OXB is very different to other gene therapy companies and that our progress has been very fast compared to others. He has responded by acknowledging that his general comments might not have been fair as far as OXB is concerned and we are scheduling a meeting to ensure that he is better informed...I have been talking to a number of institutions recently and there is no obvious problem from CSFB's comments...Thank you for your constructive concern".

I think Dr Kingsman's response speaks for itself!

In addition, I would remind you that Andrew Allars of Prelude Technology Trust has continually been prepared to put money into OXB. As a board member he is, I presume, privy to much more information about the company than you or I, and is therefore well placed to assess whether OXB is a good investment. I therefore think his investment track record in OXB speaks for itself!

Incidentally, OXB's Chairman (Peter Johnson) has extensive experience with Wellcome, Hoechst and Astra. He was formerly chairman and managing director of Smith Kline and French Research Ltd and a group main board director of Fisons. I could go on further about the other board members but would suggest you look up the details yourself in the Annual Report, from which I think you would draw some reassurance.

The key thing to keep an eye on is the quality and progress of the Company's products, which appear to be doing very well; and institutional share holdings. There is plenty of background information about products and progress on the Company's web site. In this respect, I suggest you don't just look at the "News" page but take an interest in the site as a whole. I note today, for example, OXB are advertising for 10 posts in the fields of neurodegeneration, neuroprotection and regeneration, biological systems, product development, immunotherapy, gene discovery and gene therapy. Such a recruitment drive suggests to me a company where things ARE most definately "happening" as you say. Its also worth remembering that Andrew Allars of Prelude Tech Fund has in the past and continues to invest heavily in OXB, signalling his confidence in the Company.

If still in doubt, I suggest you attend the next AGM where you will have the opportunity to put questions directly to representatives of the Company, as well as striking up conversations with other investors.


(IN RELATION TO THE ABOVE POSTINGS: NOT AN INSTRUCTION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD. DYOR).