1. Markets are (largely) efficient - that's why they exist. Of course there are opportunities to exploit information assymetry but they are about as equal and infrequent in occurrence as managers exploiting gullible shareholders.
2. Of course the market adjusts for risk - which is why OXB is valued at £200m at the moment and not £2000m or £20m (or whatever figure you like).
3. The recent rise in the share price equates to an additional £50m on market cap (from £150m to £200m - that to me is the risk adjusted NPV of the estimated Trovax deal value. If the estimate is correct then the share price won't move until something else of material impact happens. If the esimate is wrong then it will move.
You may think me a curmugeonly Eeyore - well rather that than a rose tinted skint scouser (and toffees have had to wear rose tinted specs for many a long year!)
I wish you all a delightful winter solstice celebration!
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