Oxford Biomedica. 2005 to see 'Huge value creation' (Panmure Gordon)

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Tim - Thu, 22 Dec 05 :

Raven speaks alot of sense I think, or is it all from Elder. Remember the tip about the loser sticker on your screen.

As I said I know little to nothing about OXB, except that it is a bio tech stock and a few months ago it had a very nice looking chart. I do however know a bit about bio tech companies and Raven is spot on about the risks, in fact the past shows they tend to be digital in nature, ie all or nothing. The chance of developing a blockbuster is as rare a finding the proverbial needle in the haystack, meanwhile they burn investors cash more efficiently than a small bonfire. They have a monotonous habit of returning to the market for more fuel. But the bit that really puts me off, is that apart from very careful study of the technical picture you get no chance to manage your risk, altho a few people including the market makers usually seem to get the nod. You have to be in it to win it, but you also have to be in it to lose it, and your chances of loseing are many times that of winning. When the fund managers take a few million shares, its a tiny percentage of their funds, which they are prepared to lose and at the end of the day its not their money anyway.

NABI pharma just recently announced the failure of its leading candidate and the share dropped from $13 to $3 before you could even trade it.

History is littered with pharma, biotechs that have destroyed investor value in the search for a profit. The following is just a tiny sample:

OMH,XEN,AOR,PTH,PRO,SOH,SPA,TXN,WMG,ERX,VER,KSB,RGT,GMX etc

OXB may be the rare one, as I said I don't know, but if I was long it would be only with an amount of money that could be completely lost, or with a S.B with guaranteed stop. And I would keep an eagle eye on the charts and a cast iron stop loss.

Anyway Happy Christmas everyone and lets hope the New Year shows OXB to be a winner.


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