The revenue (not to mention clinical) potential of TroVax is, as we all know, very considerable. Since the completion of initial trials in 2003 leading independent biotherapy commentators have said they 'EXPECT' TroVax to play 'SOME PART' in cancer/tumour treatment primarily as a combi to surgery or chemo. OXB have been consistently cautious in their findings presentations and IMO have done a first class job of managing expectations.
The picture since these early trials has now changed dramatically with CD8 and tumour response data - and we now have a provisional go-ahead for PIII trials in H2 06, which is hugely significant.
The target go to market date for TroVax is 2009. We can feel pretty confident of that date now...all being well.
Anyone who thinks OXB are going to take TroVax to market themselves is mis-informed.
I believe that the potential partners have already been identified or rather have made themselves known. It is not so much getting the deal as getting the right deal. How is this to be achieved.
PTI recently won an 11th hour deal for its lead drug. This pre-PIII deal (like AZM's ALT 962 deal with Takeda) was huge and sets an important precedent in the Bio Sector. We all know large pharma have many of their favorite bread-winners coming off patent in the very near future. They are despirate for new drugs and treatments....they'll clearly pay for these new rights handsomely.
It seems clear to me that OXB have been offered a deal - but its not anywhere close to the sort of deal OXB want....for us and them. We are getting very warm indeed, however, as every additional set of trial data, every extra penny OXB have in the bank strengthens that all important negotiating position.
It's not difficult to fathom.
Large pharmas have a choice to make so who will be first to snap up TroVax...do they wait for further data then pay through the nose or do they go now for the slightly discouted price OXB mgt today want.
OXB have more than enough time, and cash, on their side. Unfortunately for them, the large pharmas do not have such leeway. The ball is very much in their court. IMHO we will see a deal for TroVax before the close of Q1/06 or just as soon as PIII trial terms are confirmed.
I firmly believe TroVax will be out-licenced on the right terms and soon....the competition for it will be too great otherwise - if there is too much +ve data there will be too much competition, which makes any long delay into H2 seem unlikely.
The cancer/Immunotherapy sector is going to be white-hot in 06, much as Palladium will be in the precious metals sector. Enjoy the NY, it's going to be great for OXB, just great.
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