I dont rate that press comment re takeover - lazy reporting - would have expected this bounce irrespective of any takeover rumour / speculation
and...
"PramBigear - 14 Dec'05 - 18:47 - 26113 of 26127
elfman
I agree with your view. The Prof is a bit of a "poison pill". No-one can buy the company without him. However, a very long term contract, bonus, and golden handcuffs would probably suit him (given it would take away the future possibility of having to hold his nose and deal with the City again), and 60p would probably make the City boys wet themselves at how clever they have been.
Not my preferred outcome, but quite probable."
Comes down to whether we believe AK is a smart businessman as well as a smart scientist. I hope and believe he is, and will want to do more with his life than get a drug close to market, flog it for a couple of million and settle down in his carpet slippers. I credit him with more drive and ambition than that. This is why we had the placing, to be able to maintain independence and grow shareholder value....think back a few months when the AK discussion was of separate deals for trovax for difefrent applications, and the recent drive to get it to market quick via RCC and the likely nhs colo-rectal study increasing likelihood of earlier off label usage...
dont forget those who said extra 8p /share for the extra cash, that there is a potential extra £66m worth of value from that probable trial on trovax colo-rectal likely to be a 'free' asset, let alone the value afforded by being in a stronger bargaining position by having cash to support the business....
as far as DCF analysis goes, risk is reducing, certainty increasing, potential market sizes huge for the products in pipeline, interesting additional revenue sources eg sigma, trovax vetinary, lentivector future royalties, 5t4 future royaltuies, wyeth product, time to cash inflows reducing (eg for trovax via RCC, FDA fastracking, orphan status, potential off label sales), and assets in the hand increased via the cash from placing, the £66m potential free value from the colo-rectal study...
cheers me up when I try to get to sleep at any rate!
no advice intended
RoL
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