££......Osmetech ......Smell the Success.....££

Cricketmad,
Anything issued that close to Christmas, is probably rushed as the author will be consumed by an alcoholic haze and probably rushing to his next 'hair of the dog'.
What Citywire didn't scratch beneath the surface was that 3 months previously OMH was valued at £30m and with CC and the cash at that point, Molecular division wasn't priced in at all! So for it to be priced in at £20m come mid January is a good increase. Don't get me wrong I believe that OMH will go up in value substantially, I just believe it will be more gradual than some here.
Any debate has been stifled here, and that is not good.
The Institutions have been selling as the price rose, that is no surprise, a lot of PIs have banked profits as well, that is what the market is about.
What we need now is to see what deals the Company can come up with and what they mean to OMH.

Remember that TM Biosciences have just been sold to Luminex, but look at the price (from memory they went for the equivalent of $44m). They were further ahead than OMH with their test programme although did not have the cash to take it further or their own platforms to test on. But it gives us an idea of what an early stage test portfolio could be worth, on the other hand it has also strengthened what was probably our closest competitor, now with Luminex at the helm.

I see the sale of CC as a done thing, the Company will now be looking at building up the test menus, but these tests won't come on line immediately, so revenues will be low and substantial costs will still be ongoing (for the next 2 years according to the OMH circular). They will now have the cash for this so that is no worry, but most people will want to see the test menus increased and increasing Molecular revenues, going forward.
I don't believe we will see much in this year's figures, they have placed a small amount of eSensors and these are on minimum usage agreements of £75k pa, some may build up to £250k pa but they have only been in the field for a few months so won't have brought in much at the moment, Optigene has also been given a limited launch and the tests are that much cheaper on it, so I don't expect much there. Optitube, I beleive was launched in US late last year and will be launched in Europe early this year, but from the Companies statement it seems this too is tentatively feeling the market, before a wider scale launch and ramping up of sales.

I am holding at the moment, and will look to buy again if the deals which are due to come through are favourable and can add quickly to Sales. The other two things I would like to see is CYP450 tests' progress (these are forecast to be on sale by the end of this year, if the timetable can be speeded up that would be great, but we are not in control of approval timescales) and some sort of licensing deal for Optigene (perhaps to be used as the platform for a larger Company's test panels?).

So I don't expect fireworks at the moment, I think we will consolidate at these levels (22p-27p)and will hopefully start to hear news on tests and deals over the next 3 months, CYP450 approvals and a major licensing deal would see the price shoot up again to a new level and judging by the last 3 months we will see the price start to move up first.

Good Luck to all Osmetech holder's. Happy New Year to all!

Trout.