"what fundamentals are you working on?"
At present I'm working more on the balance of probabilities than fundamentals: will more oil be discovered, what will the oil price be in 2007 and subsequent years, will Brenda be brought successfully to production etc? Once production begins, the fundamentals will become more relevant. At this stage, valuing OIL on its 2P reserves is probably more sensible. US$8 per barrel may be fair (given the new tax rate of 50%). So the next reserves report (in March?) could be interesting.