NSB - 2003

Oh what the heck - if it spoils M & C's day here goes

NSB Retail Systems, the software group, has twice bounced usefully but I have not taken profits. After I bought at about 15p, the price soared above 40p and the prospects looked good because the directors were buying too. But this turned out to be yet a further twist in the capricious fortunes of the IT industry: NSB then plummeted to 2.5p.

At least I was pleased to have resisted repeated broker "sell" advice at the lows (recalling how "buy" notes helped the shares to 340p in 2000).

Recently there was a chance to sell at 17p bid, but it disappeared in a flash as I filled out an order online. Then on December 19 the shares rose again and I sought to emulate others whom the trading pattern implied were selling at that price.

I was unsuccessful but that did not worry me because I was mindful of an emotional factor. One's buying price in a share easily dictates one's mindset. NSB's volatility meant I was tempted to be rid of the shares at any profit. But I am inclined to hold them, given that strong US consumer spending should be feeding through into retailers' IT investment.

So besides an intelligent deal with BT, where NSB is selling its UK side but retaining distribution rights, there is scope for better trading news from its principal operations in the US.

Sharewatch, a smaller company newsletter, has recently added NSB to its latest model portfolio. These have delivered returns of more than 1,200 per cent in the past nine years.

NSB could surprise on the upside in the first half of 2004. More likely, at 16.25p now is a time to buy.