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Aleman - Thu, 21 Dec 06 :

Yes. I was flat this morning but closed up 0.4% despite having 3 risers and 5 fallers. Obviously the fallers were nothing to write home about but I think the 3 significant risers all have something in common and that is shorters closing for the year end financial figures. SBT and WAGN have definitely got some shorters leaving. I had not thought ACL was being shorted but the amount of stock on loan has fallen to a negative figure recently. I don't know how that can happen but it suggests someone has been buying back, and ACL's price turns rapidly on low volumes. It does raise questions about shorters' tactics. They hit shares affected by bad news but continue to expand positions as shares fall below fair value as buyers get frightened. Sooner or later buying returns well below fair value and there is a scramble to close positions in competition with normal buyers. The last shorters to the party must get burned every time, so I do not see why they do it. It is a risky way to make money and probably loses more often than not in the long run. Waiting to close in the thin volumes around the holiday period seems daft. Perhaps there is more to it than that but I'll stick to what I know. Buy and hold has been very profitable for me.


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