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wilkie_hk - Thu, 21 Dec 06 :

Morning all. My lot moving sideways so far, which is fine. I placed a cheeky order for HMV today at 140p until close of play tomorrow. This is a business in slow underlying decline, but I feel that the depression in the sp this year has been too rapid leaving there room for the price to be re-based at a level above the current. At the moment the sentiment is very negative due to a cautious trading statement yesterday, which has caused the herd to lop 7% off the price this week, or 10% if 140p is reached. Hopefully, this will be a case of profiting due to the markets neuroticism, but the sp needs another 5p dip at present to hit my buy level. The divi for the year was 7.4p, which was 8.8% up, and the company follow a progressive dividend policy. Present and foreward PE's are 8, 10 and 9, which will probably be adjusted by 5-10% in the aftermath of the latest trading statement, but will still be very attractive. Of course, in this industry it could only take the introduction of the next big home entertainment innovation, which can appear pretty rapidly, to drastically reverse the slow decline of the business.

Oh well, my lot have perked up as I type and I am now showing a slight gain, with NFDS and BBC leading the way :), but HMV moving up and further away from my buy price :(.


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