New Millenium: Charts & Fundamentals

>Citytrader007
I'm probably the last one you'd expect to defend this share, but I will all the same for the following reasons:

1. The value is in the ground. They do have proven resources and the equipement is now in place, but not operating at full mining capability. This will improve given time. Time is a problem though, because on the calculations that quite a few have made, it seems that they are going to run short of funds and may have to do another placing if they are unable to get the mining permit by the time they last forecasted it - March 2005.

2. Not only do they have a proven resource, but there is potential resources in the other areas.

3. The Kimberlites represent tremendous value in the ground. When the company is able to devote enough resources, to do a bit of field geo-chem on the Kimberlites and take adequate samples (by both narrow bore and wide bore drilling) to grade the pipes, then the majors will be hustling to sign up a JV. My feelings on this is that we are looking at 18 months to two years from now. It could be sooner if the majors did a bit of field work on their own. Remember that Petra signed up BHP for their Kimberlites and they are in the neighbourhood. Look what happened to their share price. Its climbed substantially. So will NML, when they fulfill the promises they made to the shareholders.

4. They may have acted like amateurs in some of the mistakes they've made, but you have to give them credit for the large stones they've found since. If only we knew the amount of ore that was sampled to find these prizes, then we could determine, how rich the Garimpo really is.

5. Lastly, even though they are late and they are risking another placing/dilution, I can see that they will become cashflow positive (more revenue than expenditure) during 2005. They may not be able to clear the investment already made, but the sheer fact that they are starting to see some return will cause the share value to climb, even after the dilution.

The investors have made chosen (with a few exceptions) to hold their shares for the meanwhile. You have to accept that this is their decision and theirs alone to make. They are aware (because I've acting as Devil's advocate) that there are some unpleasant possibilities for later on. They may have to swallow a dilution. They might get even more delays. But they have chosen to accept this gracefully (or otherwise) and hold onto their shares as they stand.

I don't see any merit in your argument that this share has died. It is not an "Ex-parrot, it has not ceased to be"! It's not very well, considering its been in the same narrow price band for the past year. But we know that this is because the management made amateur mistakes about the forecasted date on mine start and on various other matters like the weather or the method of distributing news to shareholders.

I think you should seriously consider investing in NML, later on in 2005. If the dilution is put through, or they finally manage to get the mining permit, you should buy in as much as you can, because this share is going places. Just as soon as they can find some way of keeping up to extraction speed in bad conditions and set realistic dates for their goals.

If you are not in NML when they do agree the JV deal or start announcing the monthly parcel size, you'll regret it. As much as I regret not buying into AEN when it was still £1.50. If you ignore NML, then you'll feel the plonker, when these shareholders are feeling all warm and fuzzy (and rich) inside. Keep watching, because the next four months will be very interesting.