Inv3stor - please, I resent the suggestion that I may be an insider. If only ...
The terms of the restructuring, i.e. 4% for equity holders (my earlier typo), 8% for conv bond holders and 88% for the bank debt is public information. We know how many shares are out there, how many CB's are outstanding and what the bank debt is, so it is possible to do the maths.
The only unknown, and this is what makes the market, is what is the company really worth.
My guess is at best, half of what first choice is worth (curr. £795m)- on the basis that first choice recently made good profits (£100m), and MT has lost over £1bn in the last two years.
Obviously, if you think they are worth the same as first choice then by my calculation that equates to a share price of about 5.75p
This does not even take in to account the fact that the creditors are locked up from selling shares, nor the recent unfortunate events in the far east.
I hope you will appreciate that I am not trying to drive the price down, but merely think I have uncovered a price anomaly that you should be aware of.
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