Motion-Media is Spot on Target

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Technobuddy Column

December 29, 2002 9:07am


Dec. 29--"Predicting the distant future is easy. Solar power will be harnessed, cures will be found for present-day diseases and the New York Mets will win the World Series. The real difficulty is predicting tomorrow -- figuring out the next step in getting from where we are to where we are going."


-- Article by Arthur Miller of Motorola Inc., in IEEE Spectrum, June 1994

In other words, it's easy to be a high-tech prophet when it's hard for others to remember what you predicted.

So, at each year-end, when I look ahead at what technology may bring to your home or office in the next year or so, I am filled with fears and doubts.

But no one could ever respect a nervous prophet, so I'll move boldly ahead to the future and hope none of you clip and save this column. This year, I'll tell you what I think is going to happen. And, to make these predictions more useful, I'll spend a little time at the end of the column telling you how you can profit from a few of them.

-- 1. Is that your TV or your computer? The growing availability of flat-panel display screens at affordable prices makes it much more realistic to merge the television set and the computer screen. This trend will be fueled by sales increases for wide-screen monitors as high-definition television increases in popularity. Those who pay the premium for such a screen will find it can be a good computer monitor. So why spend big bucks for a new monitor and a television? This trend to blend has already started but will gain obvious momentum before the end of 2003.

-- 2. Say goodbye to all those unsightly wires. Wireless computer networks are already here. But look for the wireless trend to move into other areas of your home. Wireless speakers will make it easy to bring the sound to where you want it. Don't be surprised if manufacturers find ways to make other appliances wireless.

-- 3. Remember the videophone? Despite the fact that several companies, including AT&T, have experimented with video telephones, the technology has flopped. But as high-speed Internet service becomes common, low-cost video cameras connected to the Net by a home computer will make video calls more common. Hobbyists (and more than a few X-rated folks) make use of the technology now. But here's the difference: You'll use yours to call Grandma.

-- 4. The World Wide Web has mostly been the land of the free. Those who have charged for content haven't done all that well. But -- in this world of new economic realities -- look for growth in the trend to charge for content. I'm not talking a landslide yet, but 2003 may mark the beginning of the end for a mostly free Web.

-- 5. PCs? It's a no-brainer, and I probably shouldn't call this one a prediction. After all, it happens every year. Processor speeds will continue to increase, and 3-gigahertz chips will be common; hard disks and read/write DVD drives will offer almost unlimited storage. The 400-gigabyte hard disk will be common and affordable.

-- 6. Cellular phones continue to become the telephone of choice. The wired phone is beginning to look old-fashioned as free long-distance service and unlimited minutes turn the cell into the main phone for the family. The quantum leap in the amount of time an average consumer uses a cellphone may reawaken worries about its safety. After all, there's a huge difference in subjecting brain tissue to 30 minutes of radio frequency radiation (operating in the same basic range as your microwave oven) each week and giving it 30 hours of exposure.

Now let's see how you can use this information to save a few bucks. Here are some opportunities that should arise.

-- 1. As flat-screen computer monitors become more popular, prices of regular monitors will take a nose dive. That's already started. The old-fashioned monitor actually does a better job for some uses, including playing computer games. If you don't mind being a little out of date, you can take advantage of increasingly low prices for big conventional monitors -- 19 inches and above -- in the coming months.

-- 2. Regular television sets also will be a bargain, as the wide-screen digital models come into vogue. While digital TV should be the standard equipment by 2006, my guess is you'd get plenty of use out of a bargain-priced big-screen television even after that date. If you just have to have digital, you should see moderate price decreases for those models as production increases.

-- 3. Prices for DVD players will continue to decline. As more DVD players are built and purchased, it is getting cheaper to make them. Besides, high-tech manufacturers recover most research-and-development costs in a product's first two years of production. That period has passed. With those costs now recovered, prices will decrease.

One last prediction: At least half of my forecast will be wrong. The only constant with technology is that it seldom pays any attention to predictions.