Well, if you believe some January market gauges, you could have the answer to this question as early as January 8...and no later than January 31.
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, a market information guide, the first five trading days of a new year tend to be a good measure of how the whole year will pan out.
For example, the S&P 500 has been up during the first five days of trading 33 times since 1950, according to the Almanac. Of those 33 years, the S&P 500 only failed to finish higher for the full year five times. Unfortunately, one of those years was this year. The S&P increased 1.1 percent in the first five days of 2002 but as of December 30, the index was down 23.4 percent.
This indicator has been less reliable for rough starts to the New Year, however. Of the 20 times since 1950 that the S&P 500 has fallen during the first five days of trading, the S&P 500 has finished the year down ten times and up ten times.
Thus stock quotes
Thus stock charts
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