Hi estseon, Happy New Year to you too.
I think that when the two key platforms in the existing portfolio reach maturity (ie approaching end of phase II), and assuming the promise of successful trials is realised, the sp will be in the £20-£30 region.
The timeline for Ru keeps being put back, it seems to me, and may not reach the end of phase II until 2008. But there will be bits of news regarding progress of trials between now and then. The same, perhaps even more so, with Genvax, where there are loads of different trials at different stages of progress.
If a significant licensing deal is agreed before full 'maturity' of the portfolio (let's say for all the Oncosense products or for one or two of the Genvax products), it will kick start a price escalation, but not take the sp all the way to £20-30 in one go.
£8 is my stab at an end-of-2007 forecast, assuming some significant trials progress, one or two minor licensing deals that kick start another sp escalation, and a re-rating that has the sp settling at £8 during the 'quiet period' 52 weeks from now.
What's your guesstimate for end-of-2007?
b