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mansiep - Fri, 22 Dec 06 :

mansiep - 5 Dec'06 - 20:03 - 1178 of 1238 edit


IHNC,

IMHO:- No ramping...just observations.

Re:- 1176.
Thicker sand deposit, thicker reservoir, better geological rock closure.
A prospect with potentially more & at a far greater pressure = better flowrates?

Re:- 1177.
Both prospects deliver & in similar amounts (lets be conservative) = min market cap of circa £78m+?

Other factors to consider towards larger Market Cap?

Costs:- Proximity of drill sites to existing infrastructure = reduced overheads.

Sentiment:- Prospect of MTA becoming a well known entity based on delivery/results/increased buys.

Takeover Target:- Medium term takeover target based on gas production.
Look at map at the top of this link to see multiple oil & gas pipelines entering Hungary from where? Ukraine via which company = Gazprom. Ater all the Russians will want to continue to sell their exported supplies at a premium in Hungary won't they? (See article in post 1169). Takeover target possibilities also applies to FO & AST with recent Hungarian gas discoveries. A bid on any one of these would drive up interest in the remainder. Bear in mind that FO's discovery is purported to be a recoverable gas resource of 21.8 trillion cubic feet (617 billion cubic meter or some 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent). The resource assessment, based on probabilistically estimated recoverable fractions of known but inactive quantities, also states that there is a 50% probability of a recoverable gas resource of 54.9 Tcf, and a 10% chance of 116.1 Tcf at Makó. 617bcm equals to Hungary's 40 years total gas consumption, and indicates a sizable field even in international terms. It is suspected that the economically recoverable portion of this contingent resource could be much smaller than 600bcm, however, even one single percent of this reserve is a significant amount.

Market Consolidation:- This is also a possibility between rival companies.

IMHO:- MTA is in the right place at the right time.

Final Fact:- Hungary has produced in excess of 20tcf of gas from World Class deposits.


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