"OK, slightly more careful back of the envelope calculations...
50% increase on last year bandied about more than once. Revenues of 1.3-1.5M look likely. There's absolutely no sign in the last results that cost of sales have any significant variable component. Let's err on the side of caution and put them at 200K. Ditto for admin expenses...1.1M is, I think, an upper bound. So overall, I make that 0-200K profit for the year."
Main reason I was wrong...turnover 10% above the upper bound but cost of sales WAY higher than I expected. I'd like to know why...turnover doubled but cost of sales trebled. That's a bit back to front surely? Increased marketing spend?
Despite that, there's a superb risk/reward at these prices IMO. And I think the management have done a good job overall. OK, the original business plan was far too optimistic, but that's the case most of the time. How many companies manage the turnaround? And of that small percentage how many of them manage it without getting the begging bowl out and diluting the original shareholders to peanuts.
BTW, chances of signing new contracts must be increased significantly by these results surely? Increases confidence in any potential customers that they're not going bust.
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