M&S about to go down the drain

HI Scram,

Looking at the graph of MKS price since July, yes, that is exactly what it shows. Lower lows and lower highs.

However, where I and the TAs part company is that I attach almost no weight to past share performance over a period of time at all.

Should one feel that the past share performance has an effect on future share performance per se, ie that trends really do count, then, as chartists do, it may be possible to predict when a share should be sold, or purchased. Effectively, you are using past performance to predict a future path for the share price - which, of course, every chartist denies is the pupose for which TA was designed (which puzzles me no end!!).

Me; I don't think past performance has any effect on the future share price of an individual share. It is only by an awful lot of time and effort - which might allow you to know enough about how the share price reacts in particular situations, so that you might just be able to get one step ahead of the crowd, every now and then, in order judge when sentiment is changing - that you can determine whether to buy, or to sell.

If you really could determine future share price from past share performance, then you would have the holy grail and you would be rich. Unfortunately everyone else would quickly get to know. In this scenario, taken to its logical conclusion, every share's future progress would be completely predictable and everyone would win; therefore no-one would win and the whole economy of the world would simply disintegrate as it is based on people gambling on the prices of companies' shares!

Odd how the holy grail has never been found.

Happy New Year, P.