Living Cheaper & Better Abroad

The Sunday Times December 31, 2006


Is the global property boom set to end?
Peter Conradi





Sometimes it seems like everyone owns at least one or maybe even two homes abroad these days. They don’t, of course. Although definitive figures are hard to come by, the true number is probably still much less than a million. Yet it certainly seems that way, especially when you are sitting in the back of a taxi and the driver is telling you proudly about his flat on the Costa del Sol or pondering aloud the relative merits of investing in Bulgaria or Montenegro.



If a home abroad once almost invariably meant a Spanish villa or a French gîte, the concept has broadened over the past five years to include castles in Slovenia, riads in Marrakesh and log cabins in Canada. It is not difficult to understand why: cheap flights, low global interest rates and bags of equity in homes in Britain have made a foreign bolt hole more affordable than ever, while rising prices in most of the world’s markets have convinced many people that real estate abroad is a one-way bet.

So will it be full steam ahead for next year? John Howell, senior partner at the International Law Partnership and a veteran observer of the foreign property scene, has serious doubts. “I think the big stories of 2007 are going to be of scandals and of disappointments,” he says. “A lot of people are going to find their dream of making a profit out of Bulgaria or wherever else is going to go sour. You can make good money out of international real estate, but you have to go about it in a realistic way.”

It is a message, according to Howell, that has already been learned by some of those who succumbed to the agents’ hard sell and bought in Florida in recent months.

Rental returns on the large four- and five-bed villas in Orlando that are popular with British buyers are not turning out as high as expected. To make matters worse, prices in Florida — and elsewhere in America — have been falling as the property boom runs out of steam. Nor have things been especially rosy on the Costa del Sol where oversupply has also led to crumbling prices; rather than being able to sell on at a profit, many who bought off-plan are also sitting on losses.

The fundamentals in both countries remain good, however, which means anyone buying now can drive a hard bargain, especially if it is a forced sale. In Florida, the recent plunge in the value of the dollar to close to two to the pound has also added to affordability.

There have been similar signs of a slowdown — if no fall in price as yet — in Dubai and Bulgaria, two other much hyped destinations, where the markets have been have been dominated by new-build properties sold off-plan to British and other foreign investors. Dubai was the scene of feverish speculation last year with many properties changing hands several times at ever higher prices even before they were completed, but analysts predict a severe glut of mid-priced one- and two-bed flats when many of these projects come on stream next year.

Bulgaria could also be one to watch. Those who have already taken delivery of their properties have had mixed experiences. While some owners, especially those with flats in Sunny Beach and the other cheap-as-chips resorts on the Black Sea coast, have expressed disappointment at low yields, others, especially in Bansko and the other ski resorts, have reported healthy bookings stretching well into next year. It remains to be seen, however, whether demand will keep pace as more and more properties are completed and appear on the rental market.

Many of those who have bought in Bulgaria — or indeed elsewhere in the world — nevertheless look set to continue undaunted. A survey by HolidayLettings, a foreign property rental specialist, found 20% of people who already own homes abroad plan to buy another in the next 12 months; a further 28% intend to do so in the next five years. Spain tops the potential buyers’ wish list, followed by France, Italy and Cyprus.

“The most fascinating aspect of this research is that the majority expect to reinvest in the country where they already have a property and therefore won’t be swayed by hype and debate over property hot spots,” says Ross Elder, managing director of Holiday Lettings.

So where else will emerge as potential hot spots next year? Elder, for one, fancies Germany; not just Berlin, which has been doing the rounds among investors for more than a year now, but also more unlikely destinations such as the Black Forest, where property prices are relatively low and tourist numbers are up, thanks in part to the World Cup effect. Expect to hear more, too, about Cape Verde, Morocco, Brazil and perhaps even Hawaii.