It appears that EPS for 2005 will be around 10.5c(6p-4.2p after 30% tax).Using a conservative p/e of 15 that gives a HISTORIC value of arond 63p.However the P/e ratio to be applied to get a fair price should be prospective and again 15 seems a conservative figure to use(bulls could argue for a lot higher).It seems highly likely that T/O will increase to $140M in 2006,this gives a prospective EPS for 2006 of around 5.88p (i have ingnored the fact that the profit margin is rising)giving fair value around 88p as we move to 2005 earnings becoming historic.
I will be interested to see what CS say and in view of the visibility of earnings i don`t feel my assumptions are too optimistic but would like to hear any other views particularly those of a more bearish nature.