It's all good news at Protherics.

-Vitamal
-Heath was talking about $500m in Summer 03, so that s now 18 months or so ago...

-re your comment

'Because PTI is profitable there is a tendency to value on an earnings basis rather than looking at the potential of some of its pipeline products'

-I think that is 100% right, I posted a sum of the parts thing ages ago...it's a bit out of date now,as Voraxaze has increased it's potential, and Voraxaze and NQO2 are another 16 months or so down the road.I posted it 17/08/03,anyway, here it is:



-maybe i'm doing my maths wrong...or maybe my estimates of value are too high....willing to be shot down in flames, but here's my stab at a sum of the parts valuation on Protherics:

Cro-Fab
They are likely to get all the market share (esp as there is no competitor,it seems a foregone conclusion?!!)
Revenue to PTI, £25m/year, gross margin could be 70% within a year or two. ie this line will give gross profits of £17.5m a year.
What's that worth? What would someone else pay for that revenue stream + profits? £175m? Let's say £150m

DigiFab
Let's say Glaxo pull out, PTI get all the market, £10m revenues/year, 80% gross margin, thats £8m/year gross profit. Valuation? £80m?

Enfer BSE test
What's that worth, up to £2.5m a year pure profit? £20m+?

Adder bites
ignore it, but it's worth something"

Voraxaze
$125m/year market, all clinical work done, no competition, must have drug, orphan status, approval in next few years. What's that worth? PTI paid some £8m for Enact (what a bargain!), but Voraxaze must be worth more like £25m?

Add it all up and it's not far short of heath's $500m estimate 'in short order'
Perhaps my estimates are over-the-top....
-even if you halved my estimates, then you still come up with something that is twice the current market cap

-but what about this for a potential kicker:

-NQ02....trials this year, massive potential, outlicense within a year/ 18 months is the plan

-Sepsis....again, massive potential, talks on-going with possible partners

-High blood pressure vaccine....mega potential (that's up from massive!), talks on-going with possible partners, Heath tells us to 'keep an eye' on this one....I wonder why!!!!

So, as far as I can see, we've got a decent up-side from here on exisiting products....we could easily double the share price at this point without in anyway stretching the valuation just on existing products alone.

And if any of the three 'mega block busters' come in, we launch into space. But we don't have to fret over them, 'cos we will already been quids in from the existing, profitable and growing revenue stuff plus Voraxaze coming up fast on the bend.

How good is that?!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Put me down for a top-up on Monday!