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Intec Telecoms up 250% since April - much more to come

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Bakunin - Wed, 20 Dec 06 :

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I think it would have to be a minimum of 70p, because General Atlantic Partners have a big holding at an average price of 66p if I am not mistaken.
Having held their holding for 5 years +, you could do a simple discounted IRR calculation to guess at what would be an acceptable return for them - without doing the calculation, I would have thought it would be 80p+.
If ITL and Oracle/Portal keep going head-to-head on major contracts, Larry Ellison would be better making a move sooner rather than later. The worry is that he calculates it would be cheaper to start a price-cutting war, incurring losses in order to cripple ITL. However, some 600 customers won't be leaving ITL becuase of price cuts. They should be happy paying annual maintenance fees to ITL as long as the product is good enough - costs of switching would be horrendous. With the maintenance revenue and enhanced ILF capability of a combined ITL and Portal, ITL's £120m revenue should easily convert into a £25m annual cash flow (20% margins), so he could easily offer £250m for ITL, ie close to 90p. I hope Ellison has a rational personality, although I am not convinced - Oracle won the enterprise database gorilla spot in the 1980s, but their finances got into an untidy state in the process; it was only because that gorilla spot was worth winning at all costs (must-have horizontal software) that it worked out for him.


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