HSI : seeking the Turn

According to Tom Holland in today's SCMP

"Super Bullish HK Investors may overlook risks ahead"

He Cites:
+ 75% of investors think the HSI will rise over the next six months,
+ 59% plan to adopt an aggressive strategy - up from 45% in Sept.
+ The recent rise has been propelled by a surge in financial liquidity

Rises around the globe have been driven by massive liquidity.
But that may be changing now

- The US Fed raised rates 17 times since 2003, and many now expect a cut in March, which may be nought but wishful thinking,
- The ECB raised rates 6 times in 12 months, and is hinting more
- Japan is likely to raise rates in Jan., perhaps by 1%
- The yen is undervalued by as much as 30% according to UBS

Reversal of yen carry-trades, could bring a sharp appreciation of the yen