GW - Latest News

goo2: A "big push" on a share normally creates instability as a sharp rise results in some investors banking profits. I'd go for a long slow steady rise myself :)

Anyway, assuming that the coroners verdict has been absorbed by the market (and the price rise over the last couple of days suggest that it has) then EVO's estimate of 130p based on current news looks sensible to me. Personally, I like to think of shares trading in ranges with the concept of the price oscillating around an ideal value with the volatility dependent on the strength of sentiment.

Back in early 2005 the price was trading in the range 110p to 135p. What was going on at the time? Well, the CSM had just turned down Sativex for UK approval and the company was preparing to appeal to the MC. If the MC had overturned the CSM then the price would have risen to around 180p. I suggest that with funding resolved we are in a similar situation, but with the added value of a European partner. The real value of the share will happen if GW get an european approval and/or US approval (I can but dream...). Neither are going to happen by June, nor the end of 2006. Not even if everyone writes all their posts in capitals :)

So what's in store? And here I'll shamelessly steal from a post made a couple of weeks ago by my friend WengerB...

The issuance of an IND from the FDA (for the palliation of cancer pain).

The first step on a long road to US approval.

The first results of GW's second Phase III clinical trial on spasticity in MS.

Just the news of completion of trial would be good news as this is what UK approval is waiting on. Admittedly there is quite a lot more work to get the actual approval...

There are possible minor news items (e.g. the extension of the Canadian NOC/c to include cancer pain).

I personally wonder whether this is likely before the Canadian pivotol trial results, but whaddoiknow?

And one that WengerB didn't post in that list, but is looking interesting, is the off-label presciptions in Canada. I've already given my estimates of what I'm expecting revenue to be (look a couple of weeks back...and add £12m !). In a month I'll find out how close I am. If these are really good then reevaluate all estimates. I've got my fingers crossed here because the (in my opinion) spectacular deal with Almirall would have been signed with knowledge of how well Bayer sales were going.

Looking back at the marketing deal with Almirall, you'll notice the statement:
In addition to the three initial target indications, Almirall and GW expect to collaborate on the development of Sativex in other indications. The parties will be discussing potential new indications over the coming months. It is anticipated that Almirall will contribute to the cost of development of new indications.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Almirall have research resource allocated to rheumatoid arthritis.

Now for some caveats...
Canada sales may not be good, which may have a (slightly negative effect on the share price).
UK approval may hit more problems, in which case GW may decide to go for approval in Spain or some other country.
Mrs A case may cause further problems (financial?)
Hippies may discover the location of GW's greenhouses.

There you go goo2, a bit more hand-waving and less precise than other people's estimates but sufficient information for you to make up your own mind. I'll remind you that I totally miscalculated when the european license deal was struck (I was expecting it after the EoY report) so I reserve the right to be completely wrong.

CFB