I agree market forces will come into play for both input and output prices. However it might take a while (a year or two?) for this to fully work out in which time producers (might) be producing at a loss. Not good for the sp of any producer.
I dont know what the price of ethanol or corn will be next year but the profitability of the plant (and the market cap) depends on what happens.
6 months ago the GTL plant would have been a gold mine - now the economics are less clear and the future uncertain.
This is why the sp has dropped over the last few months. It aint rocket science!
I will contimnue to hold as I think that the non-market forces at play will ensure that decent profits will be made in the medium to long term.