GTL Charts

If you overlay the GTL one-year chart with the Sterling Energy (SEY) chart the similarity of the intra-year variances and end-points are staggering (in fact GTL is slightly better off at the end) - but SEY has gone through a similar cycle for several years now and its holders are just getting positioned for its upward hike again (they have learned how to play SEY)

My own belief is that GTL has been caught in a similar cycle and will power out of its end-year lows - I also believe that the company is open to fund raising in a variety of ways (capital is a commodity now, especially in the USA) and GTL is not tied down to only doing so through equity - in addition, further sp drops will be making GTL vulnerable to being taken out by any ethenol grouping that is looking for consolidation within the USA

Mandation can also be expected to play a part in this market - if states or federal government mandate that X% of all fuel must be ethenol (to break oil dependence and be seen to have green credentials) then there is an assured market regardless of what happens to the price of oil - the profitability issue then becomes a matter of being among the most efficient producers and GTL would appear to be well positioned for such a challenge

I am also highly suspicious of sp drops driven by low volume - they're engineered and I always take such situations as ideal buying opportunities - which is what I have been doing over the last few weeks with GTL, including today.