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The_Owl - Tue, 20 Dec 05 :

Fegga, if PW was right on old t/o for 2004/5 being c£10m, orders not lost etc & £6.4m was not delivered, then for 2006 we should see this by year end. If so, we have £6.4m cfwd from April + anything for this year. We know there were 'in excess of £10m on books' at Oct 05, so presumably something was delivered in 7 months from April-Oct which was not in the £6.4m cfwd. If they've managed say £4.3m in that period then we'd be on track for £15m, if same repeated in 2nd half.

Personally, I doubt it, and am like you a sceptical optimist.They'd be a lot of unannounced orders. Total announced Patriot orders this year are only $7.75m (£4.43m), and many of these won't fulfill 'for 12 months', so not this fye. Nothing for NIM of any significance - so I guess their 11 people are building things for Baker, and/or UK bit of Patriot.

If GME can hit 3m for half year, should translate into 6m full year - a 30% sales improvement on 2005. If costs also up by 30%, cost of sales would be £4m Leaving gross profit of 2m. Take off operating expenses equivalent to last year of £3.6m would give 1.6m loss. However, if I'm out by just 25% on the 6m sales, 4m cost of sales, or operating costs figure, we'd be just short of profit - ala Corp Synergy forecast.

IMO Very much depends how they work the figures, but if one was UBS, Gartmore, Goldman or PW one wouldn't buy GME if presented on the above prospect! - whatever outlook seems after a further 1.5 years, would one?

Re cash position, on 31 Dec 1998, MOI reported 9.5M sales, gross profit 2.1M, net prof 0.5M. Their cash at bank was £3M then. Next results ( 31 Mar 2000) jumped to ~22M sales, ~7m gross, 1.4M net profit with cash down to 833k - so shows what can be done in right climate.


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