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mjh01 - Tue, 03 Jan 06 :

IMHO the talk of a bid by FDI for AFD is looking like a classic ramp and I cant really see what initial benefit FDI would get from launching a bid now.

Firstly, as mentioned by several posters, there's little prospect of a succesful bid without the support of De Beers - but what would De Beers get out of it? Here, I'd guess that DeBeers would want better terms of the AFD JV's than at present to support a bid.

Secondly AFD's great immediate hope, AK6, needs funding and from an AFX interview AFD are going to need to raise around US$33m somehow - If a bid were succesful, where would Firestone raise these funds for the funding needed?

Thirdly, as Firestone have stated that they are not going to be making a bid, I think there is some prohibition whereby FDI cant launch a hostile bid for 12 months, unless the AFD board recommend it. Not exactly sure about this, but can anyone see the AFD Board giving an FDI proposal their blessing?

Finally, any deal will need AFDshareholder approval and given some of the rants on the AFD board, I cant really see it.

The way I see it, FDI will need to sort Oena out and quickly, as its been dragging on for too long already. Avontuur will need to resume production at levels similar to previous levels to increase the cashflow, Bonte Koe production should be increased to full speed.

Then we've got the Groen River drilling results, kimberlite results from Botswana and further development on the marine gravels venture to look forward to. Oh, and the US venture......if it ever goes anywhere!

Here's to a great 2006!


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