Hi balcony et al, it all appears to be about coal prices.
Back in March 2005, ABN Ambro forecast that, after tax profits would reach A$88 million for 2006 ( recent FLX forecast A$58 million ) and A$105 million for 2007.
The ABN Ambro forecast sent Felix shares up close to A$4.00. Since then the price collapsed below A$2.00.
The way out, is a fall by the Aussie Dollar against the American Dollar and a recovery in Thermal Coal prices.
Russia closing the gas pipeline through the Ukraine and closure of small mines in China, is a small help to confidence.
The price of FLX shares could move anywhere between A$1.50 and A$4.00 in 2006.
My own guess is that profits will come in close to the original FLX forecast of A$66 million for 2006. By then the PCI sales situation should be back on track with Yarrabe, Minerva and Ashton at full production for 2007, leaving profits forecast by FLX at around A$85 million for 2007.
Hopefully eyes will turn to the Moolarben production that should easily double or even treble profits by 2010.
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