Ape - Have you looked at IG's new "highest high" bets yet?
Effectively, these bets let you "write time"....ie..allows you to bet on low volitility and profit from time decay as the year progresses.
Today you can bet on the highest close for the Dow at 9950-10000
If you feel certain that the DOW wont get this high during 2003 you sell some now at 9950 and as long as you have some margin to run the bet things should turn out OK (famous last words!!)....Of course, if by some miracle the DOW gets to 10,000 then you sell some more at the new quote (which would be roughly 11,100-11,150 based on Dow being 10k by March)....(Oh God...what am I saying!??)
Alternatively you could bet on low volitility and a tight range by selling the "highest close" @ 9950 and buying the "lowest close" at 7350....So long as it stays within those boundaries you will profit if you hold the bet to expiry.
